News
AI Boom: What Matters Is Who Comes Out on Top
The expansion of artificial intelligence is driving both stock markets and US economic growth. Expectations are high for a spectacular increase in labour productivity. At the same time, however, there are warnings of equally dramatic job losses. “The debate is dominated by extremes: mass unemployment on the one hand and a productivity miracle on the other,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM.
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Socialism or MAGA: America's political centre is hollowing out
US political debate is increasingly defined by two extremes: MAGA economic nationalism on one side, democratic socialism on the other. The ground in between is steadily emptying. “Heading into the midterm elections, the centre ground on economic policy has worn very thin,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. At the same time, Washington is intervening ever more heavily in the economy. For investors, this means that economic indicators alone no longer tell the whole story.
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US Midterm Elections: What Does Financial Market History Tell Us?
“Affordability” is the central issue in the upcoming US congressional elections. As the cost of food, energy and rent continues to rise, President Trump’s popularity continues to decline. “The election on 3 November will effectively become a referendum on inflation and the cost of living,” explains Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. Voters are hoping for a reversal of this trend. “For the markets, what matters is not so much who wins, but rather that the uncertainty comes to an end,” says Fischer.
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Food prices: The wave of price increases gathers momentum
Agricultural commodity prices are rising rapidly, and the situation is now becoming even more acute as the El Niño weather phenomenon continues to intensify. “Virtually all models predict further strengthening, with a peak in autumn 2026,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. Adding to the pressure are higher energy and fertiliser prices, as well as the war in Ukraine. Only part of these price increases has reached supermarket shelves so far, with another surge expected in the coming months. This could keep inflation elevated, or at least prevent it from falling further.
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Real Assets for Challenging Times
Fears of an AI bubble, geopolitical tensions, sovereign debt, war and inflation: against a backdrop of numerous sources of uncertainty, real assets are increasingly coming into focus. “Over the medium term, metals offer attractive opportunities, supported by a resilient global economy and rising infrastructure spending,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM.
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Brazil votes and the whole world is watching
Much is at stake in Brazil’s forthcoming election: a possible shift to the right in Latin America, allegations of corruption and the great-power rivalry between the United States and China. “Ultimately, however, the economic situation is likely to prove decisive,” comments Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. Yet the economic outlook is becoming increasingly precarious. What investors need to watch.
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Five Investment Trends Beyond the Market Noise
A resilient economy and rising inflation are currently shaping conditions in equity markets. However, the key source of uncertainty remains the war in the Middle East. “Leaving aside the geopolitical situation and short-term market fluctuations, several durable investment trends are nevertheless beginning to emerge,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM.
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The Yen Becomes a Rollercoaster Currency
For many years, the Japanese yen was regarded as one of the dullest and most stable currencies in the world. Anyone investing in yen generally knew in advance what to expect. Over the past few months, however, that has changed noticeably. “The yen has woken up and is now fluctuating significantly,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. “These movements could become even more pronounced.”
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Between War and Economic Strength: The State of the Markets
Two opposing forces are currently shaping the global economy: on the one hand, the strength of the corporate sector; on the other, private households, whose purchasing power is being eroded by rising prices. The war in Iran is playing a central role. “As long as the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, the question of which of these two forces will ultimately prevail remains unanswered,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM.
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